Shell longterm energy scenarios shell energy scenarios to 2050. Shell s predictions for the future by dave summers apr 10. In 20 shell published its new lens scenarios comprising two outlooks named mountains and oceans. In the new lens scenarios, renewables reach a 3040% share of total energy by 2060 in mountains and oceans, reaching perhaps 6070% saturation if the time horizon is extended still further. Royal dutch shell was recently in the news for their decision to pull back on oil. The shell team used these two possible patterns of response, or pathway lenses, to explore the implications of two specific scenarios, which they call mountains and oceans. Royal dutch shell this week set out its views on the outlook over the next few decades, in presentations to investors in new york and london. They consider real and potential trends in politics, demographics and technology. In the new lens scenarios, renewables reach a 3040% share of total energy by 2060 in mountains and oceans, reaching perhaps 6070% saturation if the time horizon is extended. The first scenario is called mountains and it is characterized by status. Shell energy scenarios shell longterm energy scenarios to.
Its mountains and oceans scenarios set out two distinct paths the world might take in the decades ahead. To explore mountains and oceans in more detail, download shell s new lens scenarios. This week, shell published a radical new climate change scenario. Shell scenarios draw on wideranging expertise from inside and outside the company and have become a resource to governments, academics and think tanks around the world. The scenario approach to possible futures for oil and. The decision showed a degree of foresight that some of their competitors would do well to emulate. Shells new lens scenarios, examine the economic, political and energy trends out to 2100, and underscore the critical role that government. According to the shell, the world in the future will be determined by how people and the government meet the challenges posed or caused by institution. In the report building on the new lens scenarios, shell construct a goldilocks scenario combining the.
Some may be disappointed with this figure, but there are good reasons why we will do well to reach even this level. Unlike shell s mountains and oceans scenarios which unfolded in an openended way based upon plausible assumptions and quantifications, the sky scenario was specifically designed to reach the paris agreements goal in a technically possible manner. After watching the video, read the two scenarios, mountains and oceans, as well as pp. Shells scenario planning depicts two long roads to a. Shell has been thinking deeply for decades about how to model the future. Shells scenario planning depicts two long roads to a carbon. Mountains, oceans shell s latest scenarios begin with a pair of what it calls lensesdesignated mountains and oceansto broadly differentiate future global strategies and help describe possible. This week, that scenario is being launched as an extension of the two existing global shell scenarios already in use, mountains and oceans. Its interesting to note that this is done by shell. Over time, the shell scenarios have gained a global following among governments, academia and other businesses. Its mountains and oceans scenarios set out two distinct paths the world might.
Released this february, the latest scenarios entitled mountains and oceans are instructive mainly as windows into the distorted thought process of an industry that is growing increasingly myopic in the face of global change. The first formal round of shell scenarios was completed in november 1971. These scenarios are a part of an ongoing process used in shell for over 40 years to challenge. Defend your choice by analyzing it in the context of the deep historical forces outlined in the textbook.
Shell scenarios since the 1970s have helped us understand how the world and its energy system could evolve in decades to come. Pdf the scenario approach to possible futures for oil and natural. Shell s new lens scenarios mountains and oceans explore two different routes to a low or zerocarbon society see figure 1. Shells new lens scenarios provide an indepth analysis of how economic, social. Climate impact of energy system scenarios shell climate. Called mountains and oceans, the scenarios provide a detailed analysis of current trends and their likely trajectory into the future. Unlike shell s mountains and oceans scenarios which unfolded in an open ended way based upon plausible. Shell energy scenarios mountains and oceans education. If you have trouble locating the video, it can also be found on youtube. Some synopsized examples are included here and on the following pages, under the actual shell titles.
New shell scenarios sharpen focus on future for society, energy. Clc interviewed martin haigh, senior energy adviser, shell scenarios team, shell international, and sought his views on shell s new lens scenario on mountains and oceans. Energy sources under the oceans scenario projected by shell. Typically, shell scenarios are plausible and challenging visions of the future. Each scenario dives into the implications for the pace of global economic development, the types of energy we use to power our lives and the growth in greenhouse gas emissions. New shell scenarios sharpen focus on future for society. Is shells new climate scenario as radical as it says. Perhaps this could be a video to be used in a critical thinking exercise as well. Since then shells scenario planners have produced 34 rounds of global and longterm energy scenarios and updates and many morefocused ones. Watch the video and explore the scramble and blueprints scenarios. Mountains and oceans is a pdf file found on the shell scenarios webpage. Angus gillespie, vp co2 shell, shows how shell has been developing scenarios to explore the future since the early 1970s and using them to allow leaders make better business decisions.
A feature published in the atlantic provides a summary of shells 20 visions for the next 90 years, mountains and oceans, which predict how future generations will use and source their energy. So what will the two worlds described in our scenarios look like. While exploring very different sociopolitical contexts, the scenarios show that persistent. Pdf the scenario approach to possible futures for oil. The scenario approach to possible futures for oil and natural gas. Both the mountains and oceans scenarios led to co 2 levels which led in the mit model widely used for this modeling to temperature rises in excess of 2 degrees. Called mountains and oceans, shells scenarios explore two plausible future pathways for society.
The sky scenario illustrates a technically possible, but challenging pathway for. Which of these scenarios do you think is most likely to occur. Royal dutch shell was recently in the news for their decision to pull back on oil exploration in the arctic, after suffering costly damage to two of their ships. Shell launches new lens scenarios in india shell india. How does shell utilize business teams in this process. The future is in our hands for over four decades, shell has reached out to experts all over the world to develop scenarios that consider. Then, in your initial post, consider the following. Its mountains and oceans scenarios set out two distinct paths the world. Shell lens scenarios highlight separation from reality a.
Shells scenario planning depicts two long roads to a carbonfree future. For the first time, the scenarios featured energysystem modelling stretching to 2100, which allowed longterm transitions to be seen in their entirety. The scenarios it sets out are more explicit about the uncertainties involved than other projections. How shell utilize business teams in this process new lens scenarios examines energy, political, economic trends out to 2100, and highlights the critical role that the government policies will probably play in shaping the future shell, 20.
How does shell utilize business teams premium nursing papers. Although the oceans scenario sees a dramatic increase in solar power, it also envisions greater fossil fuel use and higher total co2 emissions over the century than the mountains scenario, which will likely have more impact on the worlds climate. Meeting the goals of the paris agreement shell climate. Once you have navigated to the site, watch the shell new lens scenarios video 1. Pdf shell has been using scenario planning for 40 years to help. Shell bullish on solar despite dropping solar but much. They dive into the implications for the pace of global economic development, the types of energy we use to power our lives and the growth in greenhouse gas emissions. Mountains and oceans explore alternative sociopolitical pathways and their. A mountains scenario is one in which topdown, statedirected change dominates a response to shock.
Sky joins two other scenarios in shell s new lens scenarios family. They stretch our thinking and help society make crucial choices and navigate critical uncertainties. In both the mountains and oceans scenarios, the pace at which renewable. Shell scenarios cover a broader set of drivers than traditional energy outlooks. Natural gas becomes the backbone of the worlds energy system, replacing coal as a fuel for power generation in many places, and becoming more widely used in transport. They had a large impact on shell s decisionmaking process. Acknowledgements our thanks go to shell colleagues and the many external experts who have contributed to the development of these shell energy scenarios.
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